The Builders Merchants Federation (BMF) has downgraded its sales forecasts amid deepening pessimism about the state of the economy
After a promising start to last year, the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 proved challenging for building materials sales, prompting the BMF to lower its 2025 annual growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.4%.
Similarly the BMF Winter Forecast Report has reduced its growth forecast for 2026 from 3.1% to 2.3%.聽
Continued economic uncertainty means the latest forecast is tempered by lower and upper forecast scenarios of 1.2% and 3.7% 鈥� with the latter requiring government stimulus to reignite key market areas, including house-building and domestic repair & maintenance.
BMF chief executive John Newcomb said: 鈥淔ollowing a glimmer of growth in building material sales in the first six months of the year, the positive trend stalled, and the forecasted turnaround for the third quarter of the year failed to materialise. In particular, the housing market slowed in the third quarter, with housebuilders adopting a cautious approach ahead of the autumn budget, which ultimately fell short of delivering the stimulus required to reignite the housing market.
鈥淚n addition, both housing RMI and the new housing market 鈥� key areas for builders鈥� merchant sales 鈥� have been negatively impacted by the continued fall in consumer confidence.聽 The Bank of England could help to unlock these markets in 2026 by supporting a significant reduction in interest rates.
鈥淗owever, government intervention is needed to really get these sectors moving. We need to see incentives for first-time buyers, delivery of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme, more action to free up brownfield land, as well as the publication of the long-awaited Warm Homes Plan and Future Homes Standard.鈥�
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